Non-Fiction Reviews
Lunacy
Ten False Promises of the New Space Age(2026) Ben Bramble, Princeton University Press, £15.99, pbk, x+184, ISBN 978-0-691-28128-5
With the launch of Elon Musk’s SpaceX declared to be the largest initial public stock offering of all time, it would appear that the ‘New Space Age’ is now upon us. Bramble’s aim in this slim volume is to persuade the reader that not only are the reasons for pursuing this endeavour spurious, but when it comes to the goals the likes of Bezos, Musk et al. have in mind, that pursuit may itself be counterproductive and indeed could ultimately be destructive.
Ten such reasons are identified and critiqued in a clear and accessible style, chapter by chapter (p. 2):
1. To back up humanity against existential threats
2. To save Earth’s environment
3. To create a world of abundance
4. To maximise the number of future happy beings
5. To give humanity an amazing future
6. To end war
7. To contact aliens
8. To conduct incredible science
9. To excite and inspire humanity
10. To go on holidayTake, for example, the first, that expanding into the solar system is necessary for the survival of the species, given Earth’s history of extinction events. An important step along that path would involve establishing a foothold on Mars but as Bramble states, bluntly, ‘[t]here is no prospect of achieving a self-sustaining colony on Mars any time soon’ (p. 7). Those who aver otherwise have simply not taken into account just how unremittingly hostile the Martian environment is. Interestingly, however, Bramble goes further and raises ethical concerns about such settlement, including the extent to which the colonists could ever be said to give truly informed consent (p. 13). Indeed, he suggests, the very conditions involved may make some form of authoritarian government more likely. Here, as elsewhere in the book, I felt that Bramble might have drawn upon at least some of the novels, TV shows and films that his readers (not just those of SF² Concatenation) would surely be familiar with to help flesh out these issues, from Kim Stanley Robinson’s 'Mars' trilogy to Apple TV’s alternate history series For All Mankind (certainly, the fifth season of the latter could stand as a counter example to reason number six above!).
Bramble even doubts whether humanity would actually flourish under such circumstances (p.14) and uses this to drive home his broader message: we might be better off devoting resources to solving our current problems and making life better for people here on Earth. However, a speculative element creeps in at this point which, for me, weakens his case. So, for example, he argues that even if people were able to live in domes on Mars, say, complete with all the amenities, they would still know they were living on a barren and hostile planet and ‘[k]nowing these things might be crushing or even nightmarish’ (p. 16; my emphasis).
Similarly, when evaluating reason number 4, that the New Space Age will help to maximise the number of future happy beings, Bramble counters the hand wavey claims of so-called longtermists like Nick Bostrom (founder of Oxford’s Future of Humanity Institute - now closed down) that such an expansion of humanity would numerically increase the sum of happiness, by calling on the contrary intuitions of leading Oxford ethicist Derek Parfit (pp. 61-62). Intuitions and assertions of what might be don’t make for much of a solid ground on which to pitch one’s arguments, either way.
This highlights a further concern, namely the lack of detailed consideration of the scientific issues involved. When it comes to reason number five, it has been suggested that we might eventually shift stars about or even merge galaxies, storing their kinetic energy for future use ‘as a kind of gravitational engine’ (p. 70). Bramble’s response is to note that this reveals a deep lack of humility in regarding celestial bodies as having only instrumental value. However, setting aside whatever reverence we or those of other cultures might feel towards the Moon and the stars, consider the physics: we don’t even need to advance to the level of General Relativity and the inter-relationship between mass and space-time curvature to appreciate how preposterous such suggestions are, since the chaotic nature of the Solar system should give pause to anyone entertaining the idea of playing billiards with planets, much less stars and galaxies!
Nevertheless, Bramble is keen to emphasise that despite his critique, we should continue to do science in space, in the sense of science that is undertaken to increase our understanding of the universe rather than increase the profits of some tech-bro’s company (pp. 126-128). Again, I would have liked to have seen a little more detail here, regarding both the public funding of science and its understanding of it.
Such caveats aside, and as slim as this work is, it does stand as a useful and engaging corrective to the New Space Age boosterism indulged in by so much of the media. And Bramble’s final words pull no punches: ‘I began this book by noting that Elon Musk says there is a closing window of opportunity to colonise Mars. But if I’m right, the only window closing is the one to stop people like Musk and Bezos, and the major space-faring nations, from endangering us all with their ill-conceived gambit in space’ (p. 163).
Steven French
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